A probabilistic approach to modeling erosion for spatially-varied conditions

Elliot, W.J.; Robichaud, P.R.; Hall, D.E.; Cuhaciyan, C.O.; Pierson, F.B.; Wohlgemuth, P.M. 2001. A probabilistic approach to modeling erosion for spatially-varied conditions. ASAE paper number 01-8006, presented at the 2001 ASAE Annual International Meeting sponsored by American Society of Agricultural Engineers, Sacramento Convention Center, Sacramento, California, USA, July 30--August 1, 2001. St. Joseph, MI: ASAE. 16 p.

Keywords: Modeling, WEPP, Forest Fire, Erosion, Variability, probabilistic

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Abstract: In the years following a major forest disturbance, such as fire, the erosion rate is greatly influenced by variability in weather, in soil properties, and in spatial distribution. This paper presents a method to incorporate these variabilities into the erosion rate predicted by the Water Erosion Prediction Project model. It appears that it is not necessary to describe both the soil and the vegetation effects of the disturbance. Incorporating the vegetation effects on soil erodibility, and its associated variability, is sufficient--when combined with weather and spatial variability--to predict the probabilities of single storm and annual soil erosion rates in the years following the disturbance. By redefining the probability distributions of the soils, erosion during the recovering years and impacts of mitigation on erosion can be determined from the same initial set of computer runs.

Moscow FSL publication no. 2001j