A probabilistic approach to modeling erosion for spatially-varied conditions

Elliot, W.J.; Robichaud, P.R.; Pannkuk, C.D. 2001. A probabilistic approach to modeling erosion for spatially-varied conditions. Proceedings of the Seventh Federal Interagency Sedimentation Conference, March 25 to 29, 2001, Reno, Nevada. Volume 2, Section VI, "Data Quality Assurance." p. VI-33 -- VI-40.

Keywords: probabilistic

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Abstract: Soil erosion by water is a complex process resulting from the interactions among a number of factors including weather patterns, soil properties, topography, and the influences of surface vegetation. Natural variability is a dominant characteristic of each of these factors, which makes predicting soil erosion rates difficult. In many forest conditions, and some rangeland conditions, erosion may be minimal under vegetated conditions unless the site is disturbed. Disturbances may be fire, logging, grazing, or severe precipitation events. The most extreme erosion rates occur when severe weather follows a major disturbance, particularly a severe wildfire.

We are developing an interface to aid in the analysis of erosion prediction following fire, or a similar major disturbance, in forests and rangelands. This paper addresses how we intend to incorporate the inherent variability associated with the predicted erosion rate, and how that variability is influenced by weather, spatial distribution of disturbances, and soil properties.

Moscow FSL publication no. 2001k