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Forestry Sciences Laboratory - Moscow, Idaho
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Soil & Water
Engineering Publications


Project Leader:
William J. Elliot
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Predicting the Floods that Follow the Flames.

Gourley, J. J., H. Vergara, A. Arthur, R. A. Clark III, D. Staley, J. Fulton, L. Hempel, D. C. Goodrich, K. Rowden, and P. R. Robichaud, 2020. Predicting the Floods that Follow the Flames. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 101, E1101E1106.

Keywords: post-wildfire, debris flow, erosion, modeling, remote sensing, forecasting

Links: pdf PDF [343 KB]

Abstract: There is a wide range of postwildfire preparedness and mitigation activities that can and often do take place on the hillslopes, in the channels, and within the communities themselves. The physical mitigation efforts are guided by hydrologic models that account for changes in erosion, sediment delivery, and runoff in response to wildfire disturbances to the soil properties and overlying vegetation(Robichaud and Ashmun 2013). The workshop focused more on the modeling, alerting, and public warning of hydrologic responses given forecasts or estimates of rainfall in real time rather than using design rainstorms for planning purposes. The overarching goal of the workshop was to develop a dialogue among the partners to share tools and techniques for forecasting flash floods, severe erosion, and debris flows in response to intense rainfall, to highlight research and development needs for improving prediction, and to identify both short- and long-term methodologies that can be considered for transitioning to operational weather forecasting centers.

Moscow FSL publication no. 2020e