Landslide hazard assessment using Monte Carlo simulation

Hammond, C.J.; Prellwitz, R.W.; Miller, S.M. 1991. Landslide hazard assessment using Monte Carlo simulation. Bell, D.H., ed. Landslides/Glissements de terrain. Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium, 10-14 February 1992, Christchurch, New Zealand. Rotterdam, The Netherlands: A.A. Balkema. Vol. 2, 959-964.

Keywords: landslide, probabilistic

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Abstract: Evaluating the stability of variable landforms is important for land management planning on forest lands in the western United States and Alaska. This paper describes a rational means for considering both natural variability and measurement uncertainty in landslide hazard evaluation of both natural slopes, and constructed cut and fill slopes. Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate the frequency distribution of the factor of safety on a given landform or slope. The probability of failure is taken as the relative frequency with which the factors of safety are less than or equal to one. The simulation program is written for IBM PCs and compatibles, includes a menu-driven user interface, and allows the use of seven different input probability distributions to describe the natural variability and uncertainty of each input variable.

Moscow FSL publication no. 1991c